Van Orden ran well behind Trump. Can he hold his western Wis district in 2026?

Donald Trump proved popular in western Wisconsin this year, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by more than seven points in the 3rd Congressional District that stretches along the Mississippi River from Platteville to Eau Claire, and reaches into the middle of the state to grab Stevens Point.

Incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) also won his race, but with a much smaller margin. He defeated Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke by about 2.7 points. That’s smaller than his 3.7-point winning margin in 2022.

Van Orden also ran behind the Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde, who lost narrowly to Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin statewide, but won the 3rd Congressional District by about four points, according to election results released by the state earlier this month.

“Van Orden is not very liked in the district,” said Ed Miller, a political science emeritus at UW-Stevens Point. “Being at Jan. 6 did not help him. He did not get the sophomore surge.”

On the flip side, Cooke ran well ahead of Harris and Baldwin in the district. She told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel she is “seriously” considering another run for the seat in 2026.

Republicans can be encouraged by the fact that the opposition came hard for the incumbent in western Wisconsin, and still left with a loss.

Democrats and their allies spent heavily to close the gap in the 3rd Congressional District, after neglecting their candidate in 2022.

Independent groups aligned with Cooke, like the Democrats’ House Majority PAC and the progressive VoteVets PAC, spent more than $7 million attacking Van Orden and promoting her, according to filings with the FEC, mainly in broadcast and online advertisements and through the mail.

By comparison, independent groups spent at least $750,000 supporting Van Orden and opposing Cooke.

Van Orden’s campaign directly raised and spent more than Cooke though; $7.2 million in the race, according to mandatory filings with the Federal Elections Commission, compared to $6.3 million for her.

Now all eyes turn to the midterm election of 2026, when Trump will not be on the ballot.

Cooke’s numbers compared to her fellow Democrats at the top of the ticket “suggest that she would be a strong and competitive candidate in 2026,” said Joe Heim, a political science professor emeritus at UW-La Crosse.

Miller took a different view.

“Democrats may be better running someone who has experience, such as in the state legislature, and has a name known in the district,” he said. “Need to also consider that turnout will be reduced in the midterm, and often the candidate who won the presidency loses seats. This will give Democrats a boost in 2026.”

But Van Orden will have the power of incumbency, Heim said, which comes with advantages.

Sitting politicians can pass bills to help their constituents and raise their profile in the news media, among other things.

Heim also noted that the 3rd is somewhat insular, as incumbents there have historically won reelection “despite state and national trends.”

Gerrymandering mistake keeps 3rd competitive

Ironically, the 3rd Congressional District remains competitive for Democrats thanks to the 2011 Republican gerrymander.

At that time, GOP map drawers moved blue Stevens Point out of the northern 7th District, which had been held by a Democrat for decades, and into the more left-leaning 3rd District in the west. The goal was to make the 7th friendlier to Republicans, and throw blue votes into an already blue district.

But more than a decade later, the rural 7th District leans so far to the right, state Republicans in the latest round of redistricting tried to move Stevens Point back in. That would pull the liberal college town out of the now swingy 3rd District and make it more favorable to the GOP. But the Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected that attempt.

Dems not competitive in SE Wisconsin Congressional race

In the 1st Congressional District, which includes Janesville and Beloit in the west and Racine and Kenosha in the east, and where Democrats hoped they would make a serious challenge to U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, the Republican easily held his seat.

He also ran well ahead of Trump.

Steil defeated his Democratic opponent by more than 10 points — about 54% to 44% — while Trump won the district by just 4.5 points, with a margin of about 51.4% to 47%.

The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, citizen-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.

This article first appeared on The Badger Project and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.