If election results align with the partisan lean — however slight — of each district, that would put Republicans at a one-member majority of 50-49 in the Assembly.
Hallie Claflin / Wisconsin WatchNov 4, 2024, 3:10 PM CST
For the first time in over a decade, control of the state Assembly is up for grabs after new legislative maps were approved in February, ending gerrymandering in Wisconsin — at least for now. Democrats now have a shot at a slim majority in one of the Legislature’s two houses, and the outcome of eight tight races could determine whether they flip the 99-member chamber.
There are 14 Assembly races to watch in districts with a partisan makeup that skew less than 10 percentage points in favor of either Democrats or Republicans, and eight of them are true toss-ups. The partisan splits of Assembly Districts 26, 30, 61, 85, 88, 89, 92 and 94 each hover within 3%, according to a Wisconsin Watch analysis of past voting patterns. Four of them are a tick more Republican, and the other four lean barely Democratic.
If election results align with the partisan lean — however slight — of each district, that would put Republicans at a one-member majority of 50-49 in the Assembly. If Democrats keep the four seats and flip one of the four Republican-leaning toss-ups, they will emerge with a 50-49 majority.
To calculate the partisan makeup of each district, Wisconsin Watch used a composite of election results in each district from the 2018 gubernatorial race, 2020 presidential race and 2022 gubernatorial race.
The additional six Assembly races in districts with a partisan makeup that skew less than 10 percentage points in favor of either party are worth watching but likely won’t be as close as the eight toss-ups. Those are districts 14, 21, 41, 49, 53 and 91. Four lean Democratic, while two lean Republican. Assuming the results of these races align with partisan makeup of each district, the fight for a narrow Assembly majority will come down to the aforementioned eight races.
Even a narrow Republican majority would be a remarkable turnaround from 2022. Republicans currently hold a 64-34 majority in the Legislature, with one Democratic vacancy.
The Republican majority in the state Senate is not likely to flip this year — only half of the seats are up for election this cycle — but Democrats are looking to make gains that could help them win a majority in 2026, when the map is more friendly to them.
In 2011, GOP lawmakers under former Gov. Scott Walker shaped Wisconsin’s legislative boundaries to secure a strong Republican majority in this 50-50 swing state, creating one of the most extreme and effective gerrymanders in the nation. A federal redistricting case challenging the Republican gerrymander of the Assembly went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2018, where it was thrown out on a technicality.
In 2012, former President Barack Obama won Wisconsin by more than 200,000 votes. Despite receiving less than 50% of the total votes that year, Republicans won 60 of the 99 seats in the Assembly and held on to their Senate majority.
With the help of skewed maps, the GOP’s lock on the state Legislature persisted for over a decade. That changed last year. The election of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz led to a liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The new court tossed out the still-GOP gerrymandered maps approved by the previous conservative-majority Supreme Court after the 2020 Census.
Earlier this year, Republican lawmakers agreed to pass Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ proposed legislative maps to prevent the state’s liberal high court from drawing the new districts. It was the first time a politically divided Wisconsin Legislature and governor agreed on legislative maps.
Read about the eight toss-up districts that could decide the fate of the state Assembly here:
This toss-up district encompasses the city of Sheboygan and runs south along the lakefront toward Oostburg. It leans slightly Democratic.
Freshman Rep. Amy Binsfeld, R-Sheboygan, will face Democratic newcomer Joe Sheehan, a former Sheboygan Area School District superintendent and executive director of the Sheboygan County Economic Development Corp. This new toss-up reunites the Democratic-leaning city of Sheboygan, which was split in half under the state’s previous, gerrymandered districts. Binsfeld served as chair of the Speaker’s Task Force on Truancy. She was also the lead author on a constitutional amendment that would require a two-thirds supermajority of the Legislature to approve sales, corporate and income tax increases.
Read more about the race here: Sheboygan Democrat makes case in previously gerrymandered district.
This western Wisconsin toss-up district encompasses River Falls, extending north to Hudson. It leans slightly Republican.
Rep. Shannon Zimmerman, R-River Falls, seeks a fifth term in the Assembly. He served on the Speaker’s Task Force on Artificial Intelligence and also serves on the Legislature’s powerful Joint Finance Committee. He faces a challenge from Democrat Alison Page, a former nurse who eventually became CEO of Western Wisconsin Health. She’s running to protect abortion access in Wisconsin and improve health care in rural parts of the state.
Read more about the race here: GOP incumbent faces Democratic challenger in western Wisconsin toss-up district
This toss-up district covers the southwestern Milwaukee villages of Greendale and Hales Corners and parts of Greenfield. It leans slightly Democratic.
This district features a rematch from 2022. Freshman Rep. Bob Donovan, R-Greenfield, will once again face off against Democrat LuAnn Bird, whom he defeated by just a few hundred voters. Donovan served on the Milwaukee Common Council for 20 years. In the Legislature, he serves as vice chair of the Assembly Committee on Local Government. He’s running for re-election because the district “needs a tested fighter for public safety and the interests of the common man, woman, and child, to bridge the gap between Madison and local governments,” according to his campaign website. Bird, who is a former executive director and lobbyist for the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin, is running because “extreme MAGA politicians are taking away women’s rights to reproductive health care” and “blocking common-sense gun safety laws that would save lives and make our communities safer,” according to her campaign website.
Read more about the race here: Democrat seeks to flip GOP seat in Milwaukee-area rematch
This toss-up district covers Wausau, extending to also include Weston to the east. It leans slightly Republican.
Incumbent Rep. Patrick Snyder, R-Schofield, faces a challenge from Democrat Yee Leng Xiong, who served on the DC Everest School Board and the Marathon County Board of Supervisors where he advocated for mental health services in schools, expanding a 911 dispatch line and enhancing public safety providers. He wants to fund domestic violence and sexual assault service providers and focus on the economy, environment and health care. Snyder, who has served in the Assembly since 2017, has spent time on the Schofield City Council. He has worked to improve broadband expansion, cut taxes, advocate for veterans and police, and alleviate the workforce crisis.
Read more about the race here: Democrat looks to flip GOP Assembly seat in Wausau area
This toss-up district covers the southeastern part of Green Bay, including Allouez and Bellevue, and stretches down toward De Pere. It leans slightly Republican.
First-time candidates Republican Ben Franklin and Democrat Christy Welch, both of De Pere, will face off in the Nov. 5 election. Franklin is an Air Force veteran and small business owner. Welch, who serves as chair of the Democratic Party of Brown County, is centering her campaign around Medicaid and child care expansion, increased public education funding and reproductive rights.
This southwestern Green Bay district includes Ashwaubenon and borders the Fox River to the east. It is a toss-up district that leans slightly Democratic.
Two candidates with law enforcement experience will vie for the toss-up seat in the Nov. 5 election. Patrick Buckley of Green Bay, a Republican and chair of the Brown County Board, is a former Green Bay police officer and business owner. Ryan Spaude of Green Bay, a Democrat, serves as a prosecutor in the Brown County District Attorney’s Office.
This western Wisconsin toss-up district encompasses Menomonie and Chippewa Falls and lies to the north of Eau Claire. It leans slightly Republican.
Incumbent Rep. Clint Moses, R-Menomonie, faces former Rep. Joseph Plouff, D-Menomonie. First elected in 2020, Moses chairs the Assembly Committee on Health, Aging and Long-Term Care. He also serves on the Assembly Agriculture Committee. Plouff served in the Assembly between 1997 and 2005. He’s running again to curb gun violence, protect the environment and “make Wisconsin work for the people.”
Read more about the race here: Former lawmaker returns 20 years later to challenge GOP incumbent
This western Wisconsin toss-up district covers parts of La Crosse and Trempealeau counties. It includes the cities of Galesville and Onalaska and the villages of Ettrick, Holmen and West Salem, along with part of the north side of La Crosse. It leans slightly Democratic.
Incumbent Rep. Steve Doyle, D-Onalaska, faces a rematch against Republican Ryan Huebsch, of Onalaska, in the Nov. 5 election. Huebsch lost to Doyle by only 756 votes in 2022. Doyle has represented the 94th District since 2011. He has served on several bipartisan legislative task forces, including one on suicide prevention. Huebsch is endorsed by the La Crosse County sheriff, Wisconsin Right to Life, the NRA and multiple state senators and representatives. His father, Mike Huebsch, previously represented the 94th District for 16 years, served as Assembly speaker and served in Gov. Scott Walker’s Cabinet.
Read more about the race here: Longtime incumbent faces familiar opponent in La Crosse area rematch
Forward is a look ahead at the week in Wisconsin government and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse team.
This article first appeared on Wisconsin Watch and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
