Despite the polls and the pontificators, I believe Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump on Nov. 5.
Here are 10 reasons why:
- The abortion issue. In almost every election, up and down the ballot, since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats have exceeded expectations. There’s no reason to believe that the presidential election will be any different.
- Democrats have a better ground game. The Democratic Party has thousands of offices all over the country, run by experienced professionals, who know how to get out the vote. And so do the allied groups. For instance, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) itself has knocked on 6 million doors. By contrast, Trump has outsourced much of this work to a group funded by Elon Musk. Former Republican Party leader Michael Steele says Trump’s ground game is awful. “There is no ground, and there is no game,” he says. “They don’t know jack.”
- Liz Cheney and other Republican endorsements. Her outspoken criticism of Trump and her full-throated and warm endorsement of Harris, will bring an important slice of Republican and independent voters over to Harris. People crave bipartisanship and the Cheney endorsement offers it. Here in Wisconsin, the endorsements by state Sen. Rob Cowles and Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly will also help.
- The generals. From Gen. Mark Milley, who was chairman of the Joint Chiefs, to Gen. John Kelly, who was Trump’s chief of staff, to Trump’s Defense Secretaries Mark Esper and Jim Mattis, we’ve all heard how unfit Trump is for office – and what a fascist he is. At least some in the military and some conservatives will be persuaded by this.
- Taylor Swift. Her support for Harris, especially if Swift reiterates it, will have a positive influence on many women voters in the 18 to 39 demographic.
- Businesspeople. They want stability. Some of them, even though they might want Trump’s tax cuts, understand that the world would be a much more chaotic place with Trump in power. They also fear the adverse economic impact of his tariffs.
- Unregistered voters. Polls don’t count unregistered voters, and in 2016, many new voters came out for Trump, which is one reason why the polls were wrong then. This time around, the polls may be wrong again, but in the opposite direction. My bet is that new voters will cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Harris – especially young women between the ages of 18 and 25.
- Democracy. This is a more powerful issue than some pollsters predict. In the 2022 mid-terms, Joe Biden stressed this theme, and it paid off. Harris and Cheney and the generals are stressing it now, and it’ll pay off again.
- Harris has run a great campaign. For all those who were worried about her as a candidate, myself included, she has performed admirably. Every day, she has put her intelligence, her compassion, her preparedness, her steadiness, her devotion to our Constitution, and her pro-people policies on display.
- Trump is acting more and more unhinged. His inflammatory rhetoric about going after “the enemies within,” his bragging about the “extreme power” he could exercise as President, and his increasingly erratic behavior may finally do him in.
Editor’s Note: Matt Rothschild is the former editor of The Progressive magazine and former executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. He’s also the host of “Wisconsin Forward,” a Civics Media podcast series that looks to explain the background on a number of issues across Wisconsin, including the seemingly split personality the state presents in electoral politics, the results of political gerrymandering, and many more.
