Harris, Baldwin lead in new Marquette poll

Both Democrats lead in races for president and for U.S. Senate, and voters rate the economy as the top issue in the election.

In the latest survey of Wisconsin voters, Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket remain in a slight lead, according to the latest result from the Marquette University Law School Poll. 

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 52% to 48% in the presidential race in the critical swing state. That is unchanged from the previous poll, and is the same in samples of registered and likely voters. 

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde 53% to 46%.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 18 to 26, and you can find the full results of the poll here. 

While presenting the results, Charles Franklin, executive director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, noted that in previous presidential election years, the polling on Wisconsin  in the final months of the campaign have underestimated support for Donald Trump, saying the poll was “off by four points in 2020 and off by more than six points in 2016.” Compared to previous years, he added, there is a “smaller advantage for Harris in 2024 than Biden in 2020 or Clinton in 2016.” In other polls, such as the midterm elections, polling was a better predictor of the eventual results.

In a multi-candidate poll of the presidential race, Harris also leads the race by four percentage points, with 49% support among likely voters, followed by Donald Trump at 44%, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (who has dropped out of the race but will remain on Wisconsin’s ballot) at 3%, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry each at 1%. 

While Trump led Joe Biden among independent voters when the current president was running for re-election, that has changed as Kamala Harris has become the Democratic nominee. Now, two consecutive polls have showed Harris with about 60% support among independent voters. 

For the U.S. Senate, the previous poll had showed a tightening race between Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde, but the latest results are more in line with what we’d been seeing for much of the year, with the Democratic incumbent showing an advantage of 6-7 percentage points, outside the margin of error. Hovde has not yet led in a single Marquette poll.

On the issues, the economy rates as the most important, at 37%, followed by immigration and border security at 15%, abortion policy at 15%, and Medicare and Social Security at 9%. 

There are significant partisan divides on which issue is most important in this election. On the issue of immigration and border security, 31% of Republicans say it is the most important issue, while only 1% of Democrats rate it as the top issue. Conversely, on abortion policy, 31% of Democrats rate it as the top issue, while just 3% of Republicans say the same. And among independent voters, Medicare and Social Security ranks ahead of both abortion policy and immigration and border security. 

Find the full results from the new poll here, and subscribe to The Recombobulation Area for an in-depth breakdown of each new installment of the Marquette University Law School Poll.