While November’s presidential election pits two presidents against one another, the most consequential candidate in the race could be someone who won’t be on the CNN debate stage this week with Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the 70-year-old Democratic primary challenger turned independent presidential candidate, is currently polling at a level of support rarely seen for a non-major party candidate in the last 30 years — support that could have a profound effect if it materializes on Election Day.

While it remains a long shot that he’ll win the White House, Kennedy has established a legitimate support base. In both Wisconsin and nationally, some polls have found him receiving low double-digit support. That would translate to hundreds of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, a state where the 2020 election was decided by just 20,000 votes.

A new Marquette University Law School Poll, expected to be released Wednesday, will shed some light on the trend in Kennedy’s Wisconsin support just over four months out from Election Day. In an April Marquette survey, Kennedy garnered 13% support among registered Wisconsin voters.

But who are the Wisconsin voters backing Kennedy? And what draws them to someone like Kennedy, a longtime environmental attorney and anti-vaccine activist?

Kennedy, a progeny of one of America’s most famous political families, has assembled a base of supporters from across the political spectrum.

Some, like Phil Anderson, a Middleton real estate broker and perennial libertarian candidate whose latest U.S. Senate bid is under the “Disrupt the Corruption” party banner, see Kennedy as a candidate who can break the dichotomy of American politics.

“I’m really interested in, in general, having the public’s eyes open to having third party and independent candidates, and to consider them as options,” he told Wisconsin Watch. 

Voters “continuously fall prey to the messaging from the two big parties and the mainstream media that there’s only two choices, and that if you vote for an independent or third party candidate, you’re somehow wasting your vote,” Anderson said.

Others, like Douglas DeNicola, a 48-year-old Milwaukee resident who describes himself as a lifelong Democrat, are drawn to Kennedy’s policy platform.

Kennedy is “strong on the environment, strong on the Constitution, particularly the First Amendment, pro-choice, pro-peace,” DeNicola said, positions that are “the markers of a Democrat.”

“I think anybody who actually reads (Kennedy’s policy positions) and has any common sense would agree with them,” he said.

DeNicola was also turned off by Democratic efforts to villainize Kennedy after he launched his primary challenge to Biden.

Kennedy’s policy platform mixes a variety of views on a wide range of issues. 

On abortion, for example, his position has been malleable. In August 2023, he endorsed a federal abortion ban after the first trimester of pregnancy, and then backtracked. More recently, in May, he issued a statement saying there should be no restrictions on abortion until “the baby is viable outside the womb.”

In the world of foreign policy, he has taken isolationist positions. He defended the right of Israel to defend itself against Hamas but called Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine an “unnecessary war” that should be settled “through negotiations, through diplomacy, through statecraft, and not through weapons,” according to Reuters. Kennedy said he would end military assistance to Ukraine.

Kennedy also wants to free “government agencies from the control of big corporations,” something he refers to as “corporate capture.” Kennedy alleges food is unhealthy, the environment is polluted, and the U.S. is involved in conflicts worldwide because government agencies that are supposed to oversee those industries are run by people who used to work in those industries.

With his circumscription of populist positions, Kennedy has drawn voters from both the left and right, according to an analysis of recent Marquette Law School poll results from poll director Charles Franklin. But his overall support has also been declining.

In the April poll, Trump led Biden 51% to 49% among both registered and likely voters in a two-way race. When those surveyed were presented with a five-way race, Trump was at 41%, Biden had 40%, Kennedy received 13%, the Green Party’s Jill Stein polled 3% and independent Cornel West got 2% among registered voters.

Break those results down by party affiliation, and Kennedy drew support from 13% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats and a substantial 32% of independent voters. He also does well among so-called “double haters” — people who dislike both Biden and Trump — earning support from 38% of such voters in a five-way race. Winning over independents and double haters could prove critical in determining who wins Wisconsin.

Both Democrats and Republicans have attacked Kennedy, seemingly realizing his potential effect on the race. In February, the Democratic National Committee filed a complaint against Kennedy, alleging his campaign and a super PAC affiliated with his campaign had been illegally coordinating. Democrats have also put up billboards near Kennedy campaign events alleging he is “powered by MAGA/Trump.”

In May, Trump attacked Kennedy on social media. “He is not a Republican so don’t think you’re going to vote for him and feel good,” the former president said of Kennedy.

In a memo published Friday, the DNC declared that “RFK Jr. doesn’t have a path to the White House this November” but added “he can help decide who wins.”

“The current state of his campaign only reinforces his role as spoiler and confirms that, with the stakes this high, the only way to stop Donald Trump is by voting for President Biden,” the memo reads.

The Republican Party of Wisconsin told Wisconsin Watch it doesn’t plan to try to keep Kennedy qualifying from the ballot.

Wisconsin Republicans “believe in democracy and letting voters decide the next president,” party spokesperson Matt Fisher said in a statement. “Based on all available polling and research, we are confident that President Trump’s base of support remains strong and his lead in the polls unaffected by the presence of third-party candidates in the race.”
Kennedy will have between July 1 and Aug. 6 to collect and submit at least 2,000 valid signatures to appear on November’s ballot, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Forward is a look at the week in Wisconsin government and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse team.

This article first appeared on Wisconsin Watch and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.